Prepare for the Worst Hope for the Best: Strategies for Surviving Supply Chain Turbulence
In this comprehensive discussion, Jeremiah Landi and Adilah Brodie break down the critical transition from the "Efficiency First" mindset of the last thirty years to the "Resilience First" reality of 2026. This transcript serves as a strategic roadmap for business leaders who are moving away from fragile, just-in-time models toward robust, anti-fragile networks.
Why this is essential watch:
The End of Just-in-Time: Understand why the "lean" models of the past are now considered liabilities and how to implement "strategic buffering" without draining your cash flow.
Decoding the Tiers: Learn Jeremiah Landi’s specific methodology for mapping Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers to uncover "invisible" risks before they cause a production halt.
Geographic De-Risking: A deep dive into regionalization and "Local-for-Local" manufacturing strategies that reduce dependence on volatile trans-pacific shipping.
AI vs. Data Hygiene: Real-world insights into using predictive disruption modeling and why your data infrastructure matters more than the AI tools themselves.
Actionable Starting Points: The talk concludes with a concrete "Monday Morning" plan for identifying and securing your five most critical product components.
This session is designed for procurement officers, logistics managers, and executive leaders who need to convert supply chain turbulence from a constant threat into a competitive advantage.
Part 1: The Shift from Efficiency to Resilience
(00:00) Adilah Brodie: Hello everyone and welcome to the channel. I am joined today by Jeremiah Landi, a veteran in global logistics and supply chain strategy. Jeremiah, thank you for being here.
(00:11) Jeremiah Landi: Thanks for having me, Adilah. It’s a pleasure.
(00:14) Adilah Brodie: We’ve titled this session "Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best," which feels like the unofficial motto for every procurement officer and logistics manager in the world right now. To start us off, when we look at the last three years, what is the single biggest fundamental change you’ve seen in how companies approach their supply chain?
(00:34) Jeremiah Landi: It’s the death of the "efficiency at all costs" mindset. For thirty years, we worshipped at the altar of Lean and Just-in-Time. We stripped every bit of "fat" out of the system. But we realized that what we called "fat" was actually "muscle" and "buffer." When the pandemic hit, followed by the Suez canal blockage, and then the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, we realized that our chains were incredibly brittle.
(01:02) Adilah Brodie: Brittle is a great word for it. It’s like a glass chain—strong until it’s tapped in the wrong spot.
(01:08) Jeremiah Landi: Exactly. So the shift now is toward "Resilience." Companies are finally willing to pay a premium for certainty. They are moving from a single-source model in low-cost countries to a multi-source, often near-shored or friend-shored model. It’s more expensive on the balance sheet day-to-day, but it’s an insurance policy against total failure.
(01:31) Adilah Brodie: You mentioned "Just-in-Time" vs. "Just-in-Case." How does a company decide how much "Just-in-Case" inventory is too much? Because you can’t just fill warehouses with everything.
(01:45) Jeremiah Landi: That is the million-dollar question. It comes down to "Criticality Mapping." You have to categorize your components not just by cost, but by the cost of their absence. If a $0.50 gasket stops a $50,000 engine from being finished, that gasket is high-criticality. You buffer the high-criticality, long-lead-time items, and you stay lean on the commodities that are easily replaced.
Part 2: Mapping the "Invisible" Supply Chain (02:00 - 12:00)
(02:00) Adilah Brodie: You mentioned visibility being the first step. In your experience, why do so many companies fail at this? Is it a technology issue or a relationship issue?
(02:14) Jeremiah Landi: It’s both, but primarily it's a transparency issue. Most companies have a great relationship with their Tier 1 suppliers—the people they write the checks to. But they have zero visibility into Tier 2 or Tier 3.
(02:28) Adilah Brodie: For those watching who might be new to the terminology, can you define those tiers?
(02:33) Jeremiah Landi: Sure. Tier 1 is the company that sells you the finished assembly. Tier 2 is the company that sells them the components. Tier 3 is the company providing the raw materials to the component maker. The "turbulence" we see often starts at Tier 3. A mine closes in South Africa, or a specialized chemical plant in Germany has a fire. If you only look at Tier 1, you don't see the crisis coming until your supplier calls you to say they can’t ship.
(03:05) Adilah Brodie: So, how do you map that without spending millions on consultants?
(03:10) Jeremiah Landi: You have to make transparency a contractual requirement. When you sign a deal with a Tier 1, you need "Right to Know" clauses regarding their sub-suppliers. You also need to use AI-driven mapping tools that scan global news, weather, and shipping data to alert you when something happens in a region where your sub-components originate.
Part 3: The Geographic Diversification Strategy (12:00 - 22:00)
(12:15) Adilah Brodie: Let’s talk about "China Plus One." Is that still the gold standard for diversification?
(12:22) Jeremiah Landi: It’s the starting point. But "Plus One" isn't enough anymore. We are seeing a move toward "Regionalization." Instead of having one massive global hub, companies are building "Local-for-Local" supply chains.
(12:40) Adilah Brodie: Meaning you build in Mexico for the North American market and in Poland for the European market?
(12:47) Jeremiah Landi: Exactly. It reduces the "ocean risk." When you rely on a 40-day journey across the Pacific, you are vulnerable to port strikes, fuel surcharges, and geopolitical tensions. If your supply is coming via truck or rail across a border, your lead times drop from months to days. This allows you to react to market changes almost instantly.
Part 4: Strategic Buffering and Inventory Financials (22:00 - 32:00)
(22:10) Adilah Brodie: How do you convince a CFO to hold more inventory? That’s cash sitting on a shelf.
(22:18) Jeremiah Landi: You show them the "Cost of Failure" analysis. We used to only look at "Carrying Cost"—the interest and warehouse fees for holding stock. Now, we look at the "Stock-out Cost." If a $10 million production line goes dark for two weeks because you’re missing a $5 part, the cost of that failure is astronomical compared to the few dollars it costs to hold that part in a safety bin.
Part 5: Technology, AI, and the Road Ahead (32:00 – 42:00)
(32:05) Adilah Brodie: We’ve covered the "where" and the "how much," but let’s talk about the "how." In a 42-minute talk, we can't ignore technology. Jeremiah, is AI just a buzzword in supply chain, or is it actually moving the needle?
(32:18) Jeremiah Landi: It’s moving the needle, but only for those who have their data houses in order. If your data is siloed in spreadsheets across five different departments, AI is useless. But for companies with integrated ERP systems, AI is now performing "predictive disruption modeling."
(32:35) Adilah Brodie: Meaning it predicts the crisis before it happens?
(32:39) Jeremiah Landi: Exactly. It monitors things like satellite imagery of port congestion, weather patterns, and even labor strike whispers on social media. It can flag a potential delay in a shipment from Vietnam three weeks before the ship even leaves the dock. That gives you a three-week head start to find an alternative source.
(34:12) Adilah Brodie: That leads us to the human element. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about systems and nodes. What does the "Supply Chain Leader" of 2026 look like?
(34:25) Jeremiah Landi: They have to be much more of a "Generalist" than a specialist. In the past, you were a "logistics guy" or a "procurement guy." Now, you have to understand geopolitics, ESG requirements, and data science. You are essentially a Risk Manager who happens to move freight.
(38:45) Adilah Brodie: As we wrap up, if a business owner is watching this and feeling overwhelmed—their supply chain is a mess, they have no visibility—what is the one thing they should do tomorrow morning?
(38:58) Jeremiah Landi: Pick your top five most critical products. Not the ones that make the most revenue, but the ones that would shut you down if they disappeared. Go to those five suppliers and ask them for a list of their suppliers. Start there. Don't try to map 5,000 SKUs at once. Start with the five that keep the lights on.
(41:10) Adilah Brodie: Start small, but start now. Jeremiah Landi, thank you for your time and these incredible insights. This has been a masterclass in modern resilience.
(41:25) Jeremiah Landi: My pleasure, Adilah. Thanks for having me.
(41:40) Adilah Brodie: And thank you all for watching. We’ll see you in the next one.